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The NBA has approved major changes to its draft lottery system aimed at curbing tanking by teams, stripping those with the worst records of the best odds to secure the No. 1 pick. The league’s Board of Governors finalized the plan on Thursday for the next three seasons.
The new “3-2-1 Lottery” expands the lottery to 16 teams and evens out the chances of landing the top selection. The three worst teams will each have a 5.4 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick, while teams finishing with the fourth- through 10th-worst records will all have 8.1 percent odds.
While the teams with the worst records can still win the lottery, they must overcome longer odds. The NBA said the changes followed discussions with key stakeholders focused on discouraging tanking by adjusting competitive incentives.
ESPN reported the vote for the new system was 29-1, with Memphis the sole team dissenting.
Commissioner Adam Silver had promised to address tanking before the next season. The league has tweaked the lottery system multiple times over the past four decades but vowed a strong response this time.
Starting next year, all 16 lottery teams will receive between one and three lottery balls—hence the 3-2-1 system:
– The losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games in each conference will get one ball each.
– The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds entering the play-in tournament will get two balls each.
– The 10 remaining teams that miss the playoffs and play-in will get three balls each, except the three worst teams who enter “draft relegation” and lose one ball.
Tanking became a significant concern this season, with the Utah Jazz fined $500,000 for “conduct detrimental to the league” after sidelining two key players late in two games, one of which they won. The Jazz’s actions were linked to protecting their draft position since a higher win total would have reduced their chances in the upcoming draft, where they ultimately secured a pick.
Five teams, including the Jazz, Washington, Indiana, Memphis, and Brooklyn, had winning percentages below .180 after the All-Star break—an unprecedented number of losing teams in that span.
Under the new system, the three worst teams cannot fall below the 12th pick, while the best odds for No. 1 go to the other seven teams missing the play-in and playoffs. The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds will each have a 5.4 percent chance, and the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games will have a 2.7 percent chance.
Additional rules include a ban on any team winning back-to-back No. 1 picks. The NBA will also gain expanded disciplinary powers to combat tanking, such as reducing lottery odds or altering draft positions.
These rules will stay in place through 2029. The Board of Governors will revisit the system before the 2030 lottery to decide on extensions or further changes.
